December 8, 2024
Morning: Chaos in the Capital
- Rebel forces breached the outskirts of Damascus at dawn. Sounds of gunfire and explosions echoed across the city as government forces made a hasty retreat.
- State institutions, including the Ministry of Defence, were abandoned. Videos showed residents entering the presidential palace, looting furniture, and toppling statues of Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad.
Midday: Assad’s Escape
- As rebel forces closed in, Bashar al-Assad fled the city on a private aircraft. Eyewitnesses reported seeing a convoy heading toward Damascus International Airport before he boarded a plane bound for Russia. This marked the final collapse of the regime.
- Russia later confirmed that it had granted asylum to Assad and his family on “humanitarian grounds.”
Evening: Rebel Declaration
A Rebel holds an AK-47 and flashes the victory sign in a hall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s presidential palace in Damascus, Syria, on December 8, 2024. | Photo Credit: AP
The Fall of Damascus
- HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, speaking from the iconic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, declared the city “liberated.” He emphasized the rebels’ commitment to forming an inclusive transitional government.
- Thousands of Syrians gathered in central squares to celebrate the fall of the regime, waving flags and chanting slogans of freedom. The mood was jubilant but tinged with apprehension about what lay ahead.
Factors Leading to Assad’s Downfall
1. Military Overextension
Years of war had drained Assad’s military capacity. Despite significant support from Russia and Iran, his forces were overstretched, leaving critical areas like Homs vulnerable. Rebel forces exploited these weaknesses through surprise attacks and superior coordination.
2. Economic Collapse
Sanctions, corruption, and war-related destruction devastated Syria’s economy. With inflation skyrocketing and basic services collapsing, popular support for Assad eroded even within his Alawite base. Protests in traditionally loyalist areas earlier in 2024 signalled widespread discontent.
3. Declining Support from Allies
- Russia: Moscow’s focus shifted to managing its own economic challenges and geopolitical priorities. While it provided asylum to Assad, Russia avoided direct military intervention during the rebel offensive, signalling a strategic recalibration.
- Iran and Hezbollah: Both withdrew their support as the situation in Damascus became untenable. Iran publicly distanced itself, claiming it was never asked to intervene, while Hezbollah prioritized securing its positions in Lebanon.
4. Rebel Unity and International Backing
The formation of a cohesive opposition under HTS, despite its Islamist leanings, proved crucial. The rebels received indirect support from Turkey, which provided logistical aid and allowed arms shipments across its border. Western nations, while publicly neutral, welcomed Assad’s ouster as an opportunity for democratic transition.
International Reactions
United States
President Biden called Assad’s fall a “fundamental act of justice” but acknowledged the risks of instability. The U.S. pledged to work with allies to prevent a resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS while supporting the formation of a democratic government.
India
India’s measured response focused on the safety of its citizens in Syria. The Indian embassy in Damascus remained operational throughout the crisis, ensuring communication with Indian nationals and offering assistance.
Turkey
Ankara celebrated Assad’s ouster as a victory for its long-standing opposition to his regime. However, Turkey’s role in empowering HTS has drawn criticism from Western allies concerned about the group’s Islamist ideology.
Iran and Russia
Both countries attempted to distance themselves from Assad during the final days. While Russia facilitated his asylum, Iran claimed it was uninvolved in the conflict, signaling a shift in its regional strategy.
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh welcomed the fall of Assad but emphasized the need to prevent chaos and ensure Syria’s territorial integrity. Saudi officials have initiated dialogue with key stakeholders to shape the country’s political future.
The Road Ahead
1. Challenges for the Rebels
The victory in Damascus marks the beginning of a complex transition. Key challenges include:
- Establishing Governance: Rebel leaders have promised an 18-month transition period before elections, but their ability to govern inclusively remains uncertain.
- Avoiding Reprisals: HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has called for restraint, but fears of sectarian violence persist.
- Managing Extremism: The international community is wary of HTS’s Islamist roots and the potential for extremist groups to exploit the power vacuum.
2. Humanitarian Crisis
The war has displaced millions and devastated infrastructure. Immediate priorities include providing humanitarian aid, rebuilding cities, and ensuring the return of refugees.
3. International Mediation
The UN and major powers are likely to play a significant role in shaping Syria’s future. The focus will be on fostering dialogue among factions, preventing external interference, and ensuring accountability for war crimes.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a historic moment for Syria and the Middle East. It brings an end to decades of authoritarian rule but opens a new chapter of uncertainty. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Syria can transition to a peaceful, inclusive democracy or remain mired in conflict. While the world celebrates the end of a tyrannical regime, it must also grapple with the immense challenges of rebuilding a fractured nation.
